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January Foreclosure Statistics
February 17, 2012 | Comments Off
The January foreclosure reports are out. We watch San Diego County and the State of California new filings, outcomes and inventory on a monthly basis. Here’s a quick summary of the January report:
Filings:
As we expected, on both the County and State level we saw a significant increase in the number of Notice of Default (NOD) filings in the month of January. Many of the lenders put a hold on NOD filings for the holidays (we saw the effect in the December stats) and had to play “catch up” in January. Comparing January 2011 to January 2012 gives us a more accurate idea of the current status of the market (the lenders put a similar hold on filings for the 2010 holidays). When comparing January 2011 to January 2012, the County showed an 11.22% decline in filings and the State showed a 23.19% decline in filings.
Year-over-year, both the County and State Notice-of-Trustee Sale (NTS) filings decreased again (9.64% at the county level and 5.1% at the state level). The prior month NTS filings showed an even larger decrease but we need to remember that December had a larger-than-normal number of NTS filings in preparation for post-holiday catch up.
Outcomes:
The auction outcomes are the most interest portion of the January statistics.
Cancellations at the County level were up 11% from the prior month but were almost unchanged year-over-year. At the State level, cancellations were down 23% from the prior month but were up almost 11% from the prior year. The State’s 23% decrease from the prior month takes into account the abnormally high number of cancellations in December (they were up 61% over the prior year and 45% over the prior month).
At both the County and State levels, there was a small increase in the number of properties that went back to the banks when compared month-over-month. However, there was a HUGE decrease in the number of properties that went back to the banks when compared to the prior year. The County showed a decrease of 41.48% and the State showed a decrease of 37.58%. These decreases are due to the abnormally large number of homes that were purchased by 3rd parties.
The number of properties purchased at auction by 3rd parties (generally investors) showed a large increase both month-over-month and year-over-year. Month-over-month, the County had a 51% increase and the State had a 26% increase. Year-over-year, both the County and State showed 20% increases. In the State of California, 3,964 homes were sold to investors for $766.2 million. This large increase in investor purchases has made headlines and is a good indicator of two things: the banks are getting more aggressive in their auction pricing (to avoid bringing on more inventory) and a lot of investors are comfortable putting money into this section of the market right now.
Inventory:
Following the trend over the last 12 months, all inventories (preforeclosure, scheduled for sale, and bank owned) were down again in the month of January. On the County and State levels, the month-over-month changes were minimal but the decline ranged from 11% – 35% when compared to the prior year.
For a glossary of foreclosure terms, questions on the foreclosure procedure or to get a copy of the full January report, please email a request to: emily@capstonerealtycorp.com
To look for foreclosures in your area, please use our Foreclosure Search page (direct access to Foreclosure Radar records at no cost to you).
January Market Statistics
February 9, 2012 | Comments Off
The January market statistics are out and have been updated on the website. To download a PDF copy, please click here.
Overall, there was a sharp decline over the previous month. This is not abnormal for the beginning of the year. In our own business, we have traditionally seen January as one of the slowest months of the year. On a bright note, when compared to January 2011, there was a 12.5% increase in total sales volume with just a 1.847% decline in average sales price. These statistics include all price ranges and ALL of San Diego County. When you review the statistics broken down by zip code (pages 4-11) you will see that much of Coastal North County saw INCREASES in average sales price when compared to January 2011.
Obama’s Bulk REO Plans
February 1, 2012 | Comments Off
At the beginning of the year, the Obama Administration announced a pilot program to sell government owned foreclosures (REO’s) in bulk to investors. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration currently have somewhere around 250,000 foreclosed properties on their books (don’t quote me on the exact number). While California has seen some stabilization in the number of foreclosures, a lot of the rest of the Country is just picking up speed when it comes to defaulting mortgages. The bulk sale program was announced as an effort to unload the current inventory in preparation for the large future inventory. The bulk sales are intended for investors that will hold the properties as rentals; in an effort to get them OFF the market and stabilize home prices.
When I first heard about this, I thought to myself, “I wonder what it would take to get funds together to get involved… there is potential for a LOT of money to be made”. It turns out it would take somewhere around $50 million more than I have access to. Shoot. Just a few days ago, 2 GIANT funds stated they were planning to commit $1 billion a piece to these bulk sales (yes, billion). Other funds are planning to commit similarly huge amounts of money to this. It is fair to say the average investor will not be taking part.
The plan could however further involve the average tax payer. One CNBC online columnist pointed out that financing for these purchases will be limited (due to the buyer’s lack of experience managing these rental types). No one will be surprised if the government creates a subsidy for the investors (guaranteeing a portion of the loans made to the investors). If that happens, we will have put a system into place that allows investors to make a private profit while the taxpayers subsidize the risk. I am going to go out on a limb here and say he may have a point. A link to the article is at the end of this blog.
So, the questions of the hour include: How will this affect our housing market? How will this affect our rental market? And who will see the benefits of the program? I’m not a political or economic genius so I am not going to say I have the end-all answers to these questions. Here are a few of my initial thoughts on the matter:
1) How will this affect our housing market? Let’s be honest, I’m not 100% sure. From what I have read it sounds like the plans are to focus on areas where the highest number of future foreclosures are expected. In Southern California, we are not on that list. If only a small portion of the homes are in our area, we may not see much affect either way in our area.
2) How will this affect our rental market? Please see the comments above. If there are not substantial sales in our area, we probably won’t see changes. If there is a concentration of homes in any particular area, we would expect rents to drop in that area due to the new supply of available rentals.
3) And who will see the benefits of the program? I think it is safe to say the big investment firms will benefit from the program. I am hesitant to say the general public will be pleased with the results. Transferring the inventory may just delay the homes hitting the market. Managing SFR rentals can be costly and time intensive. In general, these large investment firms have no experience with it. If the firms sell these properties a couple of years down the road, we are back in the same boat (and they bought them at a discount so they don’t need a stellar economy to justify the sale). There is a good portion of online readers that believe Obama will benefit from the deal through campaign donations from large investment firms. Hmmm.
In general, the reviews I’ve seen of the program have been one sided and NOT to the side Obama was hoping for. Here are a few of the public comments I have seen posted online:
This is WALL STREET vs MAIN STREET all over again. Why would the government need to sell these properties in large quantities? It just shows how much control WALL STREET has on the politicians.
The only groups that could participate if they sell these in large bulk sales are hedge funds, private equity funds, etc.The residential RE market is a very efficient market where selling as individual sales or up to 20 properties would allow the most LOCAL competition and get the highest sale price too.
Do we really need hedge funds/private equity funds buying up our neighborhoods and profiting from all the distress? Why not have a format that allows the locals to participate? They will create the most value and jobs for the local neighborhood and local economy.
I can’t believe how rigged the game is. The same a-holes that caused this mess are raising billions of capital to purchase these 100 million dollar bundles of houses 50% less than current market cost that small individual investors would pay. They are going to get these houses so cheap and manage these rental assets so poorly it is mind blowing. Still making huge profits because of cheap money and low basises. They will only need to carry these rentals for a couple years before they start to sell them. When the excess inventory is gone, prices will push up fast b/c prices are already below rental equilibriums and replacement cost. Why not open up credit markets to single family rental housing and allow individuals to finance more than 4 houses. Fannie and Freddie will take less losses (better for the tax payer) and the properties will be managed better. (better for the tenants and cities) It will spread wealth out to thousands and thousands of small investors instead of high end finance guys.
If this is anything but a public auction, it will be rife with corruption. Way to easy for this administration to guide quality properties into the hands of those they have yet to pay off.
Neighborhoods and the single family homes they comprise are now viewed as an asset class that can yield a great cash flow. An asset class brought about by a flawed financial system five years ago and now ripe to be exploited once again by that same financial system, for the next five or so years. Once the profits have been gleaned private equity can “exit” by bundling this asset class as an investment trust (cdo?) and sell them off to the market…once again. We learn nothing.
Corruption at it’s finest? Picking the winners and losers. Welcome to corrupt America where campaign contribution equal a get out of jail free card?
Bless My soul “Obama’s going to make the rich richer and the poor to give the rich more rent.
As many posters here realize this is nothing more than an outrageous rip off of the average taxpayer. Another back door bailout of the banks. Another here’s a larger share of the pie to the wealthy elite. An absolute negation of the free market. A greater insult to the common American could hardly be imagined. I am astounded that such blatant corruption could even be suggested. If this does not start a revolution than nothing will. My God! the criminality being displayed by the politicians in this Country could not be more extreme.
Only Wall Street Banks, Hedge Funds, and Private Equity Funds have enough capital to buy foreclosed properties in huge bulk sales. Why would we ever need to sell residential real estate in huge bulk sales? Residential real estate is a very efficient market with lots of qualified investors in all markets.
The problem is almost no real estate investors can get financing to purchase rental property.
I really thought Obama was going to help bring back the middle class. Its shocking to learn about a program that would allow Wall Street an opportunity to capitalize on the residential market they helped crash but not afford that opportunity to the rest of us.
And this guy had a whole new idea for solving the issue…
If the goal is to reduce supply, then selling the houses in bulk does nothing. It merely transfers the excess supply to very large investors under a formula to almost guarantee profits. It does nothing to correct the markets. A much more direct and effective program would be to simply destroy the appropriate excess supply. This would help the entire market and stabilize prices. A pilot program in critical areas would immediately impact the markets. Numerous positives would result. It’s a simple solution, but unfortunately does not present a large investor opportunity. Too bad.
It’s clear to see there is a lot of public concern over the program in general. If you see positive public comments regarding the program, forward me the link and I will add them to help even out the tone of this blog!
Please note, all public comments were taken from the following articles:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45928213
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45925851/comid/1#comments_top
December Foreclosure Statistics
January 11, 2012 | Comments Off
The December foreclosure reports are out. We watch San Diego County and the State of California new filings, outcomes and inventory on a monthly basis. Here’s a quick summary of the December report:
Filings:
On the County level we saw a 24% decrease in new Notice of Default (NOD) filings over the prior month. On the State level there was a 31% decrease in new Notice of Default (NOD) filings over the prior month. Year-over-year, the NOD filings were down almost 19% in San Diego County and 30% in the State of California. It is important to note that these numbers do not provide an accurate reflection of the foreclosure trends. Several lenders halted the filing of new NOD’s for the holidays. We will most likely see a large increase in the number of NOD filing in the month of January as they catch these up.
Year-over-year, both the County and State Notice-of-Trustee Sale (NTS) filings followed the general trend and were down 14% at the county level and 11% at the state level. The prior month NTS filings moved in the opposite direction. When compared to the prior month’s numbers, there was a 14% increase in NTS fillings in San Diego County and an 11% increase in the State. We saw similar numbers in the November report. Again, the month-over-month increase is most likely due to lenders preparing for a busy January (to compensate for their slow December). A trustee sale notice must be filed at least 20 days before an auction date can be set. There is a good chance the lenders increased their NTS filings during the month of December in preparation for the new year.
Outcomes:
The County and State saw very different December trends in the number of cancellations (foreclosure filings that are cancelled before the foreclosures are complete). San Diego County showed a 17% decrease in the number of cancellations over the prior month. The year-over-year was essentially unchanged (down 1%). On the other hand, the State of California saw a 45% increase in cancellations over the prior month and a 61% increase year-over-year. It will be interesting to see how the January cancellation reports come out.
At both the County and State levels, there was an 11%+ decrease in the number of properties that went back to the banks when compared the prior year. Month over month, there was 3% decrease at the County level and a 2% increase at the State level.
The number of properties purchased at auction by 3rd parties (generally investors) has increased significantly since December 2010 (15% County, 45% State) but was essentially unchanged for both the County and State when compared to the prior month.
Inventory:
When compared to the prior month, there was a 10%+ decrease in ‘preforeclosure’ inventory at the County and State level. The ‘scheduled for sale’ and ‘bank owned’ inventories remained fairly flat month-over-month. All three categories were down significantly when compared to December 2010 (estimated 25%, 33%, and 12% respectively).
For a glossary of foreclosure terms, questions on the foreclosure procedure or to get a copy of the full November report, please email a request to: emily@capstonerealtycorp.com
To look for foreclosures in your area, please use our Foreclosure Search page (direct access to Foreclosure Radar records at no cost to you).
December Market Statistics
January 9, 2012 | Comments Off
The December market statistics are out and are available for review. Click here to view the PDF: San Diego Market Statistics December 2011
I would also like to mention that conventional, 30 year fixed rates are at 3.5% today (really… not with a 5 point buy down or crazy hidden terms that internet lenders love to add in tiny print). It is a great start to the week!
Mythbusters: Positive Cash Flow
December 30, 2011 | Comments Off
Positive cash flow with a San Diego property… Does it exist?
In the early 2000’s many of Southern California’s population became “real estate investors”. In 2005 a licensed real estate agent shared his philosophy with me: Appreciation rates of 20%+ per year will be sustained indefinitely; therefore, the smartest thing for a person to do is to stretch to buy the most expensive house he or she could finance. For the record, I did not make this up! Real estate “investors” were buying homes with huge monthly negatives in hopes of the appreciation covering the cost when they sold. Let’s be honest, a LOT of people made a LOT of money following this practice. However, we also need to account for the fact that a LOT of people also lost a LOT of money. Basic investing principles were thrown out the door and home prices were pushed above sustainable levels. It was a game of hot potato. The problem was that not everyone was in on the game. A large portion of the newly titled real estate investors were not aware that the strategy was not going to last. With the average home price increasing at a billion times the increase of the average rent (this may not be an exact figure), buying true cash flowing property in San Diego County became a myth. For several years, finding cash flowing rental property in San Diego County was like hunting the chupacabra.
One of the positive sides of the market correction has been the return of logic and reason based investing in our area. I am not saying that ALL of today’s investors are using logic and reason (let’s not get crazy) but the market itself has come back to sustainable levels that allow logical investors to do their thing. This is a unique and valuable opportunity. Not everyone has caught on to the full potential of the current market. Just today, I read a real estate blog that praised the ability to break even on an Oceanside rental property… as long as you do your own management, pay no utilities, have no vacancies and don’t account for maintenance costs. The blogger was a supporter of holding property for future appreciation with “minimal” monthly cost. There is a time and place for this kind of investing. We don’t subscribe to the same principle in the current market. Long term appreciation is great and will most likely happen but, in my book, this falls back into the category of speculation. There is no need for speculation in the current market. With research and market knowledge, true cash flowing properties are back in play. Here are the basics of a property we recently closed for one of our investor clients:
*Area: Lemon Grove
*Property type: Duplex (two story, 3 bed units with yard and garage)
*Condition: Fair (total repair bids came in just under $20,000)
*Market rents: $1,400/unit (total $2,800)
*Purchase price: $242,850 with a $4,850 credit from the seller (net purchase price = $238,000)
*Closing date: 12/20/2011
With down payment, closing costs and rehab our client has $78,953.50 into the deal. The monthly mortgage payment (including property taxes and insurance) is $1,248.62. Including the mortgage payment, property taxes, home owner’s insurance, a 5% vacancy factor, 8% for property management, and $250 per month for utilities and miscellaneous expenses brings the total estimated monthly budget to $1,862.62 per month. With gross rents at $2,800 a month, the estimated monthly cash flow is $937.38. That gives us an estimated cash-on-cash return on investment of over 14% and does not take any future appreciation into account. As I stated earlier, future appreciation is likely, but is icing on the cake. Please note, the cash-on-cash ROI’s for the transactions we have been working on have been averaging between 5% – 15% depending on property area and condition at time of purchase.
The chupacabra exists! The amount of cash flow available in today’s market is not expected in a “normal” real estate market. To be honest, we have had a hard time finding it in other parts of Southern California. The current circumstances are unique. Fortunately, while these deals are not easy to find, they are out there and available to willing investors in the current market.
Steps to the Foreclosure Process
December 20, 2011 | Comments Off
The steps and terminology involved in the foreclosure process in California are often misunderstood. Here’s a quick summary of the basics:
In California, the majority of foreclosures are non-judicial. This means they are processed outside of the courts.
Once a home owner falls 31 days behind on their payment, the lender has the right to file a Notice of Default (“NOD”). Many lenders do not act that quickly and home owners often go 3+ months before the NOD is filed. In some cases, we have seen them go over a year before the NOD is filed! When an NOD is filed, it is recorded with the county (so it is then noted on the property’s title report) AND sent to the home owner. The NOD notifies the hoem owner that they are behind on their payments, the amount that is due to cure the account and officially starts the foreclosure process.
Once a NOD has been filed, the home owner then has approximately 90 days to cure the account. The account can be “cured” through several methods; a home owner with the funds can simply pay the amount due, a home owner can work out terms of a loan modification, short sale or similar-type program, a home owner with equity can sell the home and payoff the mortgage in full or can refinance (if they can find an agreeable lender), etc.
If the account is not cured at the end of the 3 month period, the lender then has the right to file a Notice of Trustee Sale (“NTS”). Again, many lenders to do not act immediately on this but it is within their rights. When an NTS is filed, it is recorded with the county AND sent to the home owner. The NTS notifies the home owner that the account has not been cured and assigns a foreclosure auction date to the property. The assigned auction date must be at least 20 days after the date of the NTS filing. The home owner can continue to work on curing the account up until the 5th business day prior to the auction. Between that point and the auction date, the homw owner’s options are limited to paying off the account in full (they are no longer allowed to “catch up” payments and continue the mortgage).
On the assigned auction date, the lender has the right to auction the property for as much as they are owed on the mortgage. The “published bid” for the auction will default to the full amount the lender is owed (including late fees and foreclosure costs). However, the lender will have the right to drop the minimum bid to a lower amount if needed to be in line with current market value. If the lender chooses to drop the minimum bid, it is normally done the morning of the auction. The final bid amount will be labeled the “opening bid”.
It is extremely common for a lender to postpone the auction date of a property. If they do not have their paperwork in order, or if they believe the home owner is working on a solution, they will often opt to allow more time and will reset a new auction date. The auction dates are normally postponed 30 days at a time. Postponements are normally confirmed the morning of the existing auction date. It is extremely common for auction dates to be postponed 3-6 times. We’ve seen them go over a year at times!
In many cases, the home owners do not have the funds or equity to cure their accounts. They will often look at short selling or bankruptcy as alternative options. We feel strongly that short selling is the preferred option in most cases. Check out our Short Sale FAQ page to see why. When a home owner is in the process of short selling their home, MOST lenders will continue to move through the foreclosure process up to the filing of the NTS. At that point, they often postpone the auction date, as needed, until the short sale is completed, cancelled, or denied.
Please note:
*There is an existing California law that requires lenders to allow an additional 30 day period before filing a NOD on loans that were originated between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 3007.
*The “trustee” is a 3rd party company that handles the foreclosure and auction. The Trustee is the one that actually files the NOD, NTS and directs the foreclosure auction proceedings at the instruction of the lender. For simplicity’s sake, I left them out of the explanation above but it’s important to note the part the trustee plays in the process.
To see a copy of the complete Foreclosure Timeline as presented by the California Association of Realtors legal department, click here.
For a glossary of basic foreclosure terms, click here.
Although a small part of me would LIKE to be an attorney, I am not! Nothing in this article is intended to be legal advice. While the information included is deemed reliable, it is NOT guaranteed, warranted or anything else of that sort!
November Foreclosure Statistics
December 13, 2011 | Comments Off
The November foreclosure reports are out. We watch San Diego County and the State of California new filings, outcomes and inventory on a monthly basis. Here’s a quick summary of the November report:
Filings:
On both the County and State level, we saw an almost 15% decrease in new Notice of Default (NOD) filings over the prior month. Year-over-year, the NOD filings were down 3% in San Diego County and 11% in the State of California.
Year-over-year, both the County and State Notice-of-Trustee Sale (NTS) filings followed the general trend and were down 9% at the county level and 15% at the state level. The prior month NTS filings
moved in the opposite direction. When compared to the prior month’s numbers, there was a 25% increase in NTS fillings in San Diego County and a 33% increase in the State. It’s important to note that several of the major lenders have put a halt on trustee sales for the holiday season. This will effect the numbers for the next month or two and may have something to do with the unusually high
number of NTS’s filed in November (this could be an effort to be sure they have files ready for sale immediately after the holidays).
Outcomes:
At both the County and State level, there was a significant increase in the number of cancellations (foreclosure filings that are cancelled before the foreclosures are complete). The increase was more significant when comparing to the prior month but was positive when compared to both the prior
month and prior year.
At both the County and State levels, there was an almost 13% decrease in the number of properties that went back to the banks when compared to the prior month. There was an almost 19% decrease in the number of properties that went back to the banks when compared to the prior year.
The number of properties purchased at auction by 3rd parties (generally investors) has increased since November 2010 (11% County, 27% State) but was down 9% for the County and 13% for the state when compared to the prior month.
Inventory:
Preforeclosure, scheduled for sale and bank owned inventories remained fairly flat month-over-month but are all down significantly when compared to November 2010 (estimated 20%, 31%, and 10%
respectively).
For a glossary of foreclosure terms, questions on the foreclosure procedure or to get a copy of the full November report, please email a request to: emily@capstonerealtycorp.com
To look for foreclosures in your area, please use our Foreclosure Search page (direct access to Foreclosure Radar records at no cost to you).
HARP (not the kind that makes music)
December 8, 2011 | Comments Off
You may have heard mention of “HARP” in the last few weeks. While the news was music to my ears, it was not referring to the popular stringed instrument. HARP stands for the Home Affordable Refinance Program. It’s a government sponsored program that is meant to encourage consumers NOT to walk away from their mortgage. If you have a property that is currently underwater and your interest rate is at 6%, you are generally stuck. People across the nation are getting loans at 4% but you do not have the equity to qualify. It can get tempting to walk away from the home and debt obligation…no one wants to pay 30%above market interest on a house with negative equity.
The HARP program was created to allow underwater home owners, with mortgages owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, that are CURRENT on their mortgage payments to refinance into market rates. The idea is to help prevent strategic foreclosures. Until recently, the maximum loan-to-value for the program was 125%. Six weeks ago, the program was revised to remove the loan-to-value cap altogether. This is interesting as it opens the program to a LARGE group of home owners.The “catch” is that the lenders have to play along. Even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have previously allowed up to 125% loan-to-value, there were a select number of lenders that would also allow up to this amount (most had internal caps at 105% – 115%). As part of the program revisions, the government revised their lender agreement to limit the lender’s liability in making the loan. This was done to encourage the lenders to work with the program’s maximum guidelines.
We are anxious to see how the lenders will react and what they will be offering to the public. Most lenders are planning to update their programs early next year. I’ll let you know when the guidelines come out!
Here’s a link to Federal Housing Finance Agency News Release: http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/22721/HARP_release_102411_Final.pdf
Here’s a quick summary of the new BASIC program guidelines:
- Your mortgage must be owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae.
- The mortgage must have been sold to Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae on or before May 31, 2009.
- The mortgage cannot have been refinanced under HARP previously unless it is a Fannie Mae loan that was refinanced under HARP from March-May 2009.
- You must be current on your mortgage at the time of the refinance with a good payment history over the last twelve months.
- The current loan-to-value (LTV) ratio must be greater than 80%.
Here are links to see if your mortgage is owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac:
Fannie Mae: http://www.fanniemae.com/loanlookup/
Freddie Mac: https://ww3.freddiemac.com/corporate/
The more you know…
November 22, 2011 | Comments Off
From our beginning, Capstone has been a research based firm. The real estate industry deals with large financial transactions on a daily basis and research is key to making these transactions successful for all the parties involved! When you are shopping for shoes there is no problem with picking a pair based on your favorite color or style. I don’t recommend this strategy when looking for a half-a-million-dollar-plus house or investment property. For that matter, I don’t recommend it when looking for a $50,000 property. Our investor clients naturally warm to our research-based approach, but this is something our owner occupant buyers and sellers benefit from as well.
The real estate market is ever-changing. We have clients that like to keep up on the statistics by watching online reports and articles. While I think this is beneficial in certain regards, these are normally based on national statistics and have little to do with any specific market. The national statistics are based on averages; they don’t apply to any one area and they can be very misleading for consumers. You wouldn’t rely on a national average temperature to determine how cold it was outside, correct? Let’s be real here; if you live in Carlsbad, you wouldn’t rely on a temperature report for Escondido! Referring to national average sales prices or trends does not give you the appropriate data to base your personal real estate decisions on.
For example, the National Association of Realtors reported a 12.2% increase in sales, year-over-over, in September 2011. They reported a 3.90% decline in median home value over that same period (comparing September 2010 to September 2011). When comparing September 2010 to September 2011, San Diego County reported an 8.10% increase in sales (lower than the national average) and a 7.69% decrease in median home value (almost double the national average). When we look into things further, we can see that while San Diego County had an average 7.69% decline in median sales price, there is a LARGE range in how the individual cities and zip codes performed over that period. For instance, in Carlsbad, the 92010 zip code saw a 9.25% decline (well above the national and county averages) while the 92011 zip code saw a 2.7% decline (less than national and county averages). Over this same period, the 92054 zip code of Oceanside saw a 4.9% increase in median sales price (yes, that’s correct… an increase). Cardiff and Solana Beach also showed positive increases in median sales price over this period. These are just a few, random examples to give you an idea of the range in statistics based on cities and zip codes. When looking to buy or sell a property, it’s important to take the VERY local market into account!
We believe that tracking and analyzing the local market is vital to success in our industry. The first step to successful negotiations is understanding the true value of the item in question. As a buyer or a seller, knowing the true value of a property comes down to understanding it’s marketability, the competition, the recent comparable sales, the other party’s situation, the trends in the property’s specific market and being aware of anticipated changes in that market. I’m a big fan of the phrase, “Knowledge is power” and we’ve made that the cornerstone of our business.
If you are interested in getting monthly updates on the real estate statistics in your area, let me know. If you have a particular neighborhood or property you would like evaluated, we can do that too!
